The Maui real estate market is currently navigating a period of significant change, defined by the recent advancement of Bill 9. On July 24, 2025, the Maui County Council's Housing and Land Use Committee voted 6-3 to move forward with a proposal that would phase out thousands of short-term rentals (STRs) in apartment-zoned districts.
For investors and prospective buyers, this news has created both uncertainty and unparalleled opportunity. While headlines may focus on market disruption, a deeper analysis reveals a more nuanced picture—one that presents a strategic moment for savvy buyers to act. As your trusted advisor in the Maui luxury market, my goal is to provide clarity and help you understand the implications of this pivotal decision.
The Facts: What Exactly is Bill 9?
At its core, Bill 9 aims to convert approximately 6,000 to 7,000 condos currently operating as short-term rentals in apartment-zoned areas back to long-term residential housing. This is not an immediate ban. The proposal includes a staggered timeline, with the phase-out set to begin on January 1, 2028, for West Maui and January 1, 2030, for the rest of the county.
Most importantly for luxury investors, it is crucial to understand what is not affected. Properties located in hotel or resort-zoned districts are exempt from this bill. This means premier condominium communities such as the Wailea Beach Villas and Honua Kai, which are zoned for resort use, will not be impacted by these changes.
Market Impact: A Tale of Two Mauis
The proposal has created two distinct market realities on the island.
- The Condo Market: The uncertainty surrounding Bill 9 has had a dramatic effect on the condo market, particularly for units within the affected apartment zones. In June 2025, the median sales price for condos dropped by a staggering 28.6% year-over-year to $700,000, while the inventory of available units surged by 30%. This segment is now firmly a buyer's market, with some properties trading at discounts of 25-40% compared to their pre-proposal peaks.
- The Luxury & Single-Family Home Market: In stark contrast, the market for single-family homes and ultra-luxury properties has remained remarkably resilient. While the median price for single-family homes saw a modest dip, the average sales price soared by nearly 33% in June, driven by consistent activity in the high-end market. The ultra-luxury segment, defined as properties over $5 million, remains largely "unbothered" by the legislative changes, with high-net-worth buyers continuing to acquire legacy estates in Wailea and Makena.
Strategic Implications for Buyers and Investors
This market bifurcation creates distinct strategies depending on your investment goals.
- For the Condo Investor: This is a moment that demands careful analysis. The significant price correction in apartment-zoned condos presents a rare entry point for investors whose strategy is not dependent on short-term rental income. For those focused on long-term rentals or securing a personal Maui residence at a deep discount, this is an unprecedented opportunity. However, for investors seeking STR income, the focus must shift to the unaffected hotel and resort-zoned properties, which remain a secure investment for vacation rentals.
- For the Luxury Home Buyer: The message is one of stability and opportunity. The luxury home market is largely insulated from the direct impact of Bill 9, yet the overall market slowdown has increased buyer leverage. With homes staying on the market longer and more room for negotiation, now is an exceptional time to acquire a premier property without the intense pressure of a seller's market. This is a strategic window to secure a legacy home in paradise.
- For Sellers: For those selling a property within an affected apartment zone, strategic pricing is paramount to attract savvy buyers. For sellers in the luxury single-family home market, your position remains strong, but an awareness of the market's more measured pace is key to a successful transaction.
The Road Ahead
It is essential to remember that Bill 9 is not yet law. It must still pass two readings before the full County Council and is likely to face amendments and significant legal challenges, which could alter or delay its implementation.
This period of change, while complex, has created one of the most compelling buyer's markets Maui has seen in years. In a landscape this nuanced, expert guidance is not a luxury—it's a necessity.
If you are considering your next move in the Maui real estate market, I invite you to contact me for a confidential consultation. Together, we can explore how these market shifts create specific and powerful opportunities for you.
